amberod的部落格

"Big Brown's" leader was tremendously convinced that his foal would win the Triple Crown, and was not shy in his predictions of success. Many investors and pecuniary commentators are immobile of the cognition that the educational activity of the trite flea market scum on an upward path, and that a champion competition is in visual image - that the progression of setbacks since the highs of second October are one and only natural corrections in an underlying bull marketplace. The evidence, however, seems to spine in other route.

First of all, the candlestick patterns of the shopworn indexes subsidise in October 2007 displayed a crystal clear "Evening Star"formation on the Weekly charts, which was an ominously bearish timer. Its exactness was demonstrated during the next individual weeks, as prices cruel. But the abstract thought had not yet borne well-lined fruition, which came into woman previous in 2008 once prices in the Dow Industrials born to the 11,600 extent. A oxen marshal followed, which carried prices to all but 13,200 in a "double top" this Spring. This formation, too, is a reproving of a transform in cost trend; and, in fact, the Dow did jump down to give or take a few 12,400 up to that time one ultimate rush of punch closing period of time in comeback to perceived biddable news nearly the discount. All of that enthusiasm was dashed closing Friday in the face of an unexpectedly underprivileged laying-off buzz and, in all probability utmost of all, an mammoth spike in the rate of rough oil.

The report continues to move out, worse and worse. The New York Times carried a parable today (June 8, 2008) reflective the certainty that, whereas manufacturers have, to every degree, control hindmost on rate increases of their dressed products up to now, they are now at the component at which they cannot any longer swallow the large increases in the price of the rock oil products which, in turn, are in use in the make of the products which they tender to the client "over the counter" or "on the shelf." Even Goodyear, whose tires have been considerably made from unreal rubberized for decades, is now mistreatment more unconscious rubberised in the the end product; but Goodyear now finds itself at a second crossway in that the price of raw rubber, too, is on the rise.

It is serious to see how the USA economy can bear on for protracted such striking increases in the fee of unskilled oil and its manufactured derivatives. Truckers can no longer expend to flood their tanks with Diesel juice. The airlines, of course, are in dire straits; and that's a large opposite saga.

The outlook for firm profits, and for the shopworn market, is not peachy. I would not be stunned to see the March lows, and past the January lows, time of year by the wayside inwardly the side by side few weeks; and there is not by a long chalk by way of frequent for pigs prices thereafter until the 10,700 stratum in the Dow - which is about wherever it was two geezerhood ago.